Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Not exactly a coin toss

Part of the reason I built the hand analyzer was that I didn't totally trust the odds I would see on the television. Whenever someone turns over Ace - King or Ace - Queen against a low pocket pair they always say that it is a coin toss. Well I decided to run 23,000 hands a see exactly how close it is to a coin toss.

You can see that after my 23000 hands are run, the low pocket pair (in this case 6's) wins decidedly by about 9.5 percent advantage over the Ace - Queen. I also let the two over cards have one of the same suit as the pair.

http://www.potnut.com/pa/screenshots/cointoss.jpg

In my second example, Ace - Queen versus pocket 8's, I decided to not overlap the suits. I ran the simulation again, this time for 50,000 hands. After it is all said and done, with no overlap of suits this time, the 8's are the decided winner, this time by 11.5%.

http://www.potnut.com/pa/screenshots/cointoss2.jpg

So the next time you flip over your small pair to someone's over cards, and they say 'coin toss' be sure to correct them. Take your 10% advantage and win yourself some money with it.

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